India not in recessionary mode

India’s growth story will continue despite a slight deceleration, but
there will be no recession as in some advanced economies, Reserve Bank
Governor D Subbarao said on Saturday.

"India’s growth will continue and even if there is some moderation,
it will only be a modest moderation. But it will not be a recession…there
will only be a slight deceleration," Subbarao told reporters here.

Pegging GDP growth for FY’09 at 7.5-8 per cent, he said, this was "our
best growth estimate", even though there were other estimates ranging
from 7.2-8.7 per cent.

As India’s growth is mainly driven by domestic demand and consumption,
the country would be less affected by the global financial turmoil but
it would not go completely unscathed, Subbarao said.

Justifying RBI’s cautious credit policy announced yesterday, Subbarao
said that as a central bank, it had to balance price and financial stability
with growth as inflation, though declining, continued to be a matter
of concern.

Between October 6-20, the RBI has already injected Rs 1,85,000 crore
liquidity into the system and "the one per cent repo rate cut was
aimed at getting the financial markets going and giving them confidence,"
he said.

If the situation warranted, RBI would not hesitate to either infuse
or withdraw liquidity from the system, he said, adding that at the same
time the central bank wanted banks to focus on credit quality and ensure
flow to productive and vulnerable sectors.

Subbarao said that bankers have a "challenging task" and
his message to bankers yesterday was that they should keep credit flowing
to productive and vulnerable sectors. "They must also keep an eye
on credit quality which is important," he said.

"If there are liquidity constraints or anything needed to be done
within RBI’s mandate, we will do it," he said, adding that the
RBI would act swiftly and pro-actively to evolving situations.

Asked what would be his message to the market which crashed yesterday,
Subbarao said that the RBI was not in the business of reacting to equity
markets. "We are the monetary authority, we give monetary policy
signals and hope that they get appropriate signals," he said.

Turning to inflation, the RBI Governor said, "In mathematical
terms it was coming down and should be at around seven per cent by end-March."

But inflation continued to be a matter of concern as RBI forecast is
based on not merely the wholesale price index but also other data.

"The RBI makes a deeper study and if one analyses the consumer
price index, the CPI for agricultural and rural labour was up by 11
per cent and that for industry was up nine per cent," he said.

Oil prices, though declining, still continued to be volatile and kharif
output, though promising, is forecast lower, he said, adding that "a
weakening rupee also adds to inflationary pressures."

The RBI has announced its monetary policy in the light of these concerns
and balanced the need for financial and price stability while propping
up sagging growth, he said.

Subbarao did not subscribe to the view that the Reserve Bank is using
less of the reverse repo as an instrument.

"It (reverse repo) is an active variable and RBI will use it as
a variable," he said adding presently, "we have decided to
leave it at six per cent".

He said the monetary measures taken in recent times have already begun
reaping results, with call money rates now coming close to Reverse Repo
Rate, while the yield on the 10-year G-Sec has also started coming down,
from 8.3 per cent to 7.58 per cent.

"These are signs of the liquidity situation easing," he said.

On RBI’s intervention in the spot or forward markets, Subbarao said
he cannot discuss it publicly but the apex bank had a policy and intervened
in the markets as and when necessary.

The RBI was "sensitive" to the dollar liquidity issue, he
said adding that the central bank has taken a number of steps including
easing of External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) norms, raising NRI deposit
rates and allowing banks to borrow from their overseas subsidiaries
and branches.

Centre not interfering with RBI

The RBI Governor set at rest speculation that the Centre was interfering
in formulation of monetary policies, saying the relationship was "healthy"
between the two.

RBI is an independent and autonomous body and consulted the government
and other stakeholders while formulating monetary policies but did not
necessarily follow what the government said, the apex bank’s Governor
D Subbarao told reporters here.

"As a former civil servant, I know the RBI has consulted with
the government but does not necessarily follow (what the government
says)," Subbarao said adding "as a monetary policy institution,
we (the RBI) consult the government and other stakeholders and that
is the convention, no more, no less."

Terming the present difficult global situation as "high-profile
with implications on so many things and making front-page news",
Subbarao said "these are extra-ordinary times and the government
and RBI were grappling with the same challenges." Both fiscal and
monetary policies, even if formulated independently, have to be co-ordinated,
he said.

Photo: Buiobuione Street photography of daily life in Delhi India – 39 by Buiobuione, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.